In 2020 in early voting for Nevada Democrats file 445,351 ballots to Republicans' 400,248.
In 2024 in Nevada so far Democrats have returned 363,595 ballots to Republicans' 406,705.
So why do I mention Nevada?
Because it's one of a tiny handful of states where you can read the early voting tea leaves and get a pretty good guess as to who will the statewide ballot. Early voting in Nevada has been around for long enough that it's actually the default for most of that state's voters.
That's a margin of about 42k votes in favor of Republicans. Nevada voting guru Jon Ralston thinks that the Democrats need to get that down to about 25k by Tuesday to stand a chance, and even then it will be a reach. It's not definite but at this point the Republicans have a definite lead.
Again, why talk about Nevada? Because the trick is that right now nobody really cares about Iowa by itself. Even with Selzer's poll most observers think Iowa is almost guaranteed to go for Trump. What Democrats are really hoping for is that there's been a big shift nationwide that's moved the vote in Iowa to something close to a tie while putting the swing states in Harris' column.
That' fine, but the question I have is why you would latch onto a poll (which is after all highly speculative) rather than actual early vote counts. What's the justification in ignoring the early vote in Nevada to focus on a poll in Iowa, which after all isn't even a swing state?
BTW, how about Iowa?
In 2020 it was Democrats 462,222 to Republicans 341,866.
This year it's Democrats 219,085 to Republicans 220,140.
I'll be publishing something later on my Substack for anyone that's interested. There's plenty of other topics to discuss. For example, given that Nevada is clearly looking like a Republican win what to make of the polls that are still coming out that have Harris ahead there?
I mention it bc I read about her poll yesterday on Silver’s site, then saw Mark featuring it today. They’re both straight shooters and seems at least worth checking in on. If I get a chance to speak during the Zoom, I’ll perhaps ask you question
In 2020 in early voting for Nevada Democrats file 445,351 ballots to Republicans' 400,248.
In 2024 in Nevada so far Democrats have returned 363,595 ballots to Republicans' 406,705.
So why do I mention Nevada?
Because it's one of a tiny handful of states where you can read the early voting tea leaves and get a pretty good guess as to who will the statewide ballot. Early voting in Nevada has been around for long enough that it's actually the default for most of that state's voters.
That's a margin of about 42k votes in favor of Republicans. Nevada voting guru Jon Ralston thinks that the Democrats need to get that down to about 25k by Tuesday to stand a chance, and even then it will be a reach. It's not definite but at this point the Republicans have a definite lead.
Again, why talk about Nevada? Because the trick is that right now nobody really cares about Iowa by itself. Even with Selzer's poll most observers think Iowa is almost guaranteed to go for Trump. What Democrats are really hoping for is that there's been a big shift nationwide that's moved the vote in Iowa to something close to a tie while putting the swing states in Harris' column.
That' fine, but the question I have is why you would latch onto a poll (which is after all highly speculative) rather than actual early vote counts. What's the justification in ignoring the early vote in Nevada to focus on a poll in Iowa, which after all isn't even a swing state?
BTW, how about Iowa?
In 2020 it was Democrats 462,222 to Republicans 341,866.
This year it's Democrats 219,085 to Republicans 220,140.
I'll be publishing something later on my Substack for anyone that's interested. There's plenty of other topics to discuss. For example, given that Nevada is clearly looking like a Republican win what to make of the polls that are still coming out that have Harris ahead there?
I mention it bc I read about her poll yesterday on Silver’s site, then saw Mark featuring it today. They’re both straight shooters and seems at least worth checking in on. If I get a chance to speak during the Zoom, I’ll perhaps ask you question