November Surprise: Harris Over Trump?
November Surprise: Harris Over Trump?
A leading pollster goes live today to explain what she predicts in Iowa
I mentioned in the last post (after the paywall):
I’ve been checking in on “Mark Halperin’s Wide World of News,” which streams mornings and evenings on 2WayTV. For the past gazillion years we’ve been told media outlets are not partisan; this is just about the first where I’ve seen it in action, one night he has on Karl Rove, a few nights later, it’s Sen. Bill Bradley, from his car at a rest stop in New Jersey…
Today at 1pmET - and thanks for the meme reminding me to set the clocks back - Mark will have on J. Ann Seltzer, who yesterday released a poll saying what other polls were not saying: that Harris will take Iowa. Below, some info on how you can join the conversation. They’re really worthwhile.
SUNDAY POP UP 2WAY: J. ANN SELZER
Join me Sunday at 1pm ET to hear directly from J. Ann Selzer on her new Iowa Poll showing Kamala Harris ahead in Iowa.
Join by Zoom LIVE and interactive here: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZMldeGtrTIqHdWwKs5QtkA47xkFzsv86_Zp
You can also join via YouTube:
Nate Silver yesterday also wrote about how startling Selzer’s findings are. A clip from “A shocking Iowa poll means somebody is going to be wrong: Either Ann Selzer and the New York Times, or the rest of the polling industry”:
In September, [Selzer’s] survey had Kamala Harris just 4 points behind Trump — considered an outlier at the time.
Her new poll? It shows the state trending even bluer, with Harris leading in Iowa 47-44. 🤯
Releasing this poll took an incredible amount of guts because — let me state this as carefully as I can — if you had to play the odds, this time Selzer will probably be wrong. Harris’s chances of winning Iowa nearly doubled in our model from 9 percent to 17 percent tonight, which isn’t nothing…
Anyone who listens to my podcast with Sarah Hepola has heard what I plan to do on Tuesday. I don’t like either candidate and, sorry/not sorry, you need to earn my vote, which neither has come close to doing. I will say that this morning I woke up with a slightly different attitude, which is: If your idea of the very best you can do for your fellow Americans, the way you can uphold the ideals of liberty and freedom and being a caring and careful custodian of the future, is simulating a blowjob onstage, then you have your man.
We will be bringing you a whole lot of perspectives, and live, on election night. Join us.
In 2020 in early voting for Nevada Democrats file 445,351 ballots to Republicans' 400,248.
In 2024 in Nevada so far Democrats have returned 363,595 ballots to Republicans' 406,705.
So why do I mention Nevada?
Because it's one of a tiny handful of states where you can read the early voting tea leaves and get a pretty good guess as to who will the statewide ballot. Early voting in Nevada has been around for long enough that it's actually the default for most of that state's voters.
That's a margin of about 42k votes in favor of Republicans. Nevada voting guru Jon Ralston thinks that the Democrats need to get that down to about 25k by Tuesday to stand a chance, and even then it will be a reach. It's not definite but at this point the Republicans have a definite lead.
Again, why talk about Nevada? Because the trick is that right now nobody really cares about Iowa by itself. Even with Selzer's poll most observers think Iowa is almost guaranteed to go for Trump. What Democrats are really hoping for is that there's been a big shift nationwide that's moved the vote in Iowa to something close to a tie while putting the swing states in Harris' column.
That' fine, but the question I have is why you would latch onto a poll (which is after all highly speculative) rather than actual early vote counts. What's the justification in ignoring the early vote in Nevada to focus on a poll in Iowa, which after all isn't even a swing state?
BTW, how about Iowa?
In 2020 it was Democrats 462,222 to Republicans 341,866.
This year it's Democrats 219,085 to Republicans 220,140.
I'll be publishing something later on my Substack for anyone that's interested. There's plenty of other topics to discuss. For example, given that Nevada is clearly looking like a Republican win what to make of the polls that are still coming out that have Harris ahead there?